Most campaigns see poll data, logistics and demographics as fundamentals to winning an election. Most likely, data science and cloud computing will triumph this day.
A year ago I wrote about the importance of leveraging cloud computing and data science to win elections, pointing to the 2020 campaigns, which came to a conclusion today. The basic assertion is that technology, which focuses on the true meaning of data, will be more valuable than traditional automated calls and door-to-door campaigns, as you can understand more about constituencies and therefore target more effectively.
Campaigns won’t let you talk to people who love their data, but they all have them. The data science approach and the use of cloud computing allow campaigns to come up with some hidden conclusions that can increase opportunities for their candidates.
Sophisticated calculations and analysis can create patterns in data that people who view data in the traditional way won’t see. For example, data science can find un decided voters who are likely to vote for a particular candidate and give them motivation to vote. It may oppose a local bill that actually has nothing to do with the federal election and use that issue in the message to attract an additional 10 percent of unn decideable voters, with more than 80 percent of them voting for your candidate. Compare this accuracy to the “spray and hunt” approach, where you send a message and hope it will reach some un decided voters.
The human brain cannot find these patterns in the data. You need advanced analysis using machine learning to find things you didn’t know existed.
The ability to weaponize large amounts of seemingly harmless data is great to have in 2012, but by 2020, you are required to offer more odds. Modern election campaigns are actually about data wars and strategies that target voters rather than promoting ideas.
In this world, ideas are dynamic; how your campaign’s message is viewed depends on who it wants to see. You may see a different message than your neighbors. In-depth analysis and AI have realized that you and your neighbor are motivated by different issues, so each person is given different messages to promote their behavior.
The result: Campaigns with the best data science approach and the ability to leverage cloud computing as human meat are likely to win. I’m not sure this that the Founding Fathers saw coming, but here’s the thing.